The Library is Opening: All Stars 3

It’s that time again! RuPaul’s Drag Race is starting a new season of All Stars. I’ve previously used machine learning to try to predict the outcome of regular seasons of Drag Race. Since All Stars has traditionally had a different format (paired queens in season 1 and lip sync for your legacy in season 2), I don’t have the data to train machine learning algorithms for All Stars seasons. However I can try to predict how the queens will do based on their performances in their original seasons. This is a brief post, so to learn more about how all this works, read the first post. Based on the queens that have officially been announced (so this doesn’t include the mystery 10th queen that will be revealed on tonight’s premier), the outcome of All Stars Season 3 is predicted to be:


So based on the algorithms, Aja will be heading home first. BenDeLa, Shangela, and Kennedy will be our top three, with BenDeLa taking home the crown.

Obviously with a new format and a different mix of competitors, how a queen did in their original season isn’t a great predictor of how they will do in All Stars. Still, it’s fun to see what the data says.

I’m looking forward to what will hopefully be a great season of All Stars! To the queens:

The GitHub repo for this project