The Library is Opening: All Stars 3

It’s that time again! RuPaul’s Drag Race is starting a new season of All Stars. I’ve previously used machine learning to try to predict the outcome of regular seasons of Drag Race. Since All Stars has traditionally had a different format (paired queens in season 1 and lip sync for your legacy in season 2), I don’t have the data to train machine learning algorithms for All Stars seasons. However I can try to predict how the queens will do based on their performances in their original seasons. This is a brief post, so to learn more about how all this works, read the first post. Based on the queens that have officially been announced (so this doesn’t include the mystery 10th queen that will be revealed on tonight’s premier), the outcome of All Stars Season 3 is predicted to be:


So based on the algorithms, Aja will be heading home first. BenDeLa, Shangela, and Kennedy will be our top three, with BenDeLa taking home the crown.

Obviously with a new format and a different mix of competitors, how a queen did in their original season isn’t a great predictor of how they will do in All Stars. Still, it’s fun to see what the data says.

I’m looking forward to what will hopefully be a great season of All Stars! To the queens:

The GitHub repo for this project

The Library is Open: Season 9

Season 9 of RuPaul’s Drag Race has started! Drag Race is a reality competition show hosted by the legendary drag queen RuPaul to find the next drag superstar. Each season, between 12 and 14 queens compete in challenges, which could consist of sewing together new looks for the runway, acting in parody scenes of gay cult classics, singing, or dancing. At the end of the episode, one queen is named the winner of the challenge and the two queens who fall in the bottom must lip-sync for their lives. They perform a lip-sync to a pre-chosen song on the runway for RuPaul, and whoever impresses most gets to stay, while the other is asked to sashay away.

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The Library is Open: All Stars

The new cast of the second season of Drag Race All Stars was announced, with ten queens from previous seasons competing to win.

Adore Delano, Alaska, Alyssa Edwards, Coco Montrese, Detox, Ginger Minj, Katya, Roxxxy Andrews, Phi Phi O’Hara, and Tatianna will be joining us again. I wondered what the machine learning algorithms might predict if I trained on all non-All Star queens and then predicted where these queens might rank. The following table shows the results, sorted by the average ranking.

Adore Delano62311232
Ginger Minj72171112.2
Roxxxy Andrews53217323
Phi Phi O'Hara43518534.4
Alyssa Edwards56888957.6
Coco Montrese558881098.6

The algorithms favor Adore, with Ginger coming in second and Roxxxy taking third. This strikes me as unlikely, and of course these predictions are based on the queens’ performances during their original seasons. Each has had time to improve and grow as drag queens, so their actual performance is difficult to predict at this point. I’m looking forward to watching the season.

The script I used can be found on my github. The original series predicting season 8 starts here.