The Library is Open: Season 9

Season 9 of RuPaul’s Drag Race has started! Drag Race is a reality competition show hosted by the legendary drag queen RuPaul to find the next drag superstar. Each season, between 12 and 14 queens compete in challenges, which could consist of sewing together new looks for the runway, acting in parody scenes of gay cult classics, singing, or dancing. At the end of the episode, one queen is named the winner of the challenge and the two queens who fall in the bottom must lip-sync for their lives. They perform a lip-sync to a pre-chosen song on the runway for RuPaul, and whoever impresses most gets to stay, while the other is asked to sashay away.

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The Library is Open: All Stars

The new cast of the second season of Drag Race All Stars was announced, with ten queens from previous seasons competing to win.

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Adore Delano, Alaska, Alyssa Edwards, Coco Montrese, Detox, Ginger Minj, Katya, Roxxxy Andrews, Phi Phi O’Hara, and Tatianna will be joining us again. I wondered what the machine learning algorithms might predict if I trained on all non-All Star queens and then predicted where these queens might rank. The following table shows the results, sorted by the average ranking.

NameSeasonPlaceSVCGNBRFCRFRNNAvg
Adore Delano62311232
Ginger Minj72171112.2
Roxxxy Andrews53217323
Alaska52313473.6
Phi Phi O'Hara43518534.4
Katya75615664.8
Tatianna24764776.2
Alyssa Edwards56888957.6
Detox54885897.6
Coco Montrese558881098.6

The algorithms favor Adore, with Ginger coming in second and Roxxxy taking third. This strikes me as unlikely, and of course these predictions are based on the queens’ performances during their original seasons. Each has had time to improve and grow as drag queens, so their actual performance is difficult to predict at this point. I’m looking forward to watching the season.

The script I used can be found on my github. The original series predicting season 8 starts here.